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A murder in Austin Texas: A case report featuring evaluation given activity level propositions

Please note: As of 1 July 2025, the New Zealand Institute for Public Health and Forensic Science (PHF Science) is the new name for the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR). Research and reports published prior to this date may reference the organisation’s former name.

Abstract

This report discusses the analysis of the evidence given activity level propositions for a murder case in Austin, Texas. The testimony in this case has been the subject of a complaint to the Texas Forensic Science Commission and a subsequent report. A Bayes' net is constructed for the propositions Hp: A took W's bike from the scene of the murder to an alley where her Jeep Grand Cherokee was parked and then threw the bike into some bushes. Ha: Somebody other than A took W's bike from the apartment, rode it, and disposed of it in some bushes. A has never had any contact with W's bike. Based on published data and explicitly stated subjective probability assignments, the likelihood ratio is about 1300 in favor of Hp. This analysis supports that the original testimony given in rebuttal was correct.

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