Please note: As of 1 July 2025, the New Zealand Institute for Public Health and Forensic Science (PHF Science) is the new name for the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR). Articles and information published before this date may reference the organisation's former name.
ESR has unveiled an interactive dashboard which seeks to forecast the outcomes of a range of possible models for New Zealand's COVID-19 response.
The publicly available dashboard, which is available here considered over 240,000 possible scenarios and provides the user with the ability to change various inputs such as maximum vaccination uptake per age group, minimum age for vaccination and vaccine effectiveness for disease prevention.
The study of health outcomes finds a highly effective vaccine and high total uptake will be required to help mitigate high numbers of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths once New Zealand borders are reopened.
COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study was led by Prof. Colin R Simpson (Victoria University of Wellington), in collaboration with the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR), of the potential effect of New Zealand’s vaccination programme when borders reopen.